Source: rothroger Review Diary
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◼ fundamentals:
I. focus
1. Although the International Energy Agency has lowered its global demand forecast, US commercial crude oil stocks have fallen more than expected and international oil prices have risen.
2. PX CFR China price reference US $1006 / ton, PTA processing range reference 378Asiangameonline.95 yuan / ton
3. The start-up load of PTA is 67.03% (the base capacity of PTA on April 10 is 85.175 million tons).
4. The downstream polyester load is 86.44% (the domestic polyester production base is 82.51 million tons / year); the mainstream production and marketing of polyester filament is 52%.
II. Price form
On the one hand, the trend of crude oil at the feedstock end is different to PTA.AsiangameonlineThe influence is strong. Recently, the Palestinian-Israeli cease-fire negotiations have reached an impasse, the impact of geographical factors has gradually weakened, while the negative pressure on the demand side has appeared, and the center of gravity of crude oil prices has declined. In the later stage, although it is difficult to falsify the expectation of going to the warehouse in this peak season in the United States, the seasonal removal of crude oil is not smooth, and the overall operating rate of the refinery is relatively low. It is expected that OPEC+ will need a more specific extended production reduction signal to boost the market in the future. Under the background of the stabilization of crude oil prices in the early stage, the market is driven or insufficient in the later stage, and the room for continuous upward repair of oil prices is limited, and the cost support for PTA is still weak.
On the other hand, although it has entered the seasonal peak season of gasoline consumption, the market demand for PX is still there, but the pull is limited. South Korea exported a high amount of aromatics to the United States from March to April this year, and the high-octane regulation logic traded in previous years was weaker than market expectations this year. The pull on PX is limited, and the current price is lower than in the same period in 2023. As of May 9, CFR China and FOB South Korea PX closed at $1016 / tonne and $991a / tonne, respectively, down 2.21% and 2.27% from the last trading day before Labor Day and the relative low since the second quarter.
From the perspective of the domestic market, the operating rate of domestic PX devices increased after May Day. As of the week ended May 9, the operating rate of domestic PX units increased by 0.37 percentage points compared with the previous week. Under the background of higher plant operating rate, the weekly production capacity is slightly higher than that of the previous week, and the recent downstream is in a phased centralized maintenance period, resulting in an increase in domestic PX supply pressure. From the point of view of this week, Zhejiang Petrochemical maintenance equipment is about to be released, it is expected that the later PX weekly production still has room to increase. Under the expectation that the pull of aromatics oil regulation continues to weaken and the supply is expected to increase, the supply of PX is relatively loose in the later stage, and the price center of gravity may shift downward, further promoting the PTA market center of gravity downward.
◼ Review:
Weibo blog post "Rubber: rubber demand rebound, short-term shock", Weibo gives the short-term too much and short-term short two ideas, short-term short positions reduced, today to complete the short-term long all ideas, short-term short VIP has a hint of light positions, you can also choose not to operate. All the rubber ideas are complete, waiting for the next rubber opportunity.
Technical aspects of ◼:
◼ p-xylene 2409
◼ daily line diagram
1. The daily lifeline is the 67-day moving average. The 67 EMA forms support in the early stage and is converted into pressure after breaking.
2.9850-8036 the main falling wave, the 38.2% position of the wave is 8729, this position is an important pressure in the medium term. The position of 23.6% is 8464, which is also consistent with the 67-day moving average and 22-day moving average.
3. The pullback of this round of p-xylene is a step back to make up for last year's National Day holiday, and it is more intense. However, the probability of getting out of the new low extension wave is low.
4.MACD green column shortens, running below the zero axis, there is a trend of turning gold fork.
◼ strategy thinking:
Fundamentals, from this week's point of view, Zhejiang Petrochemical maintenance equipment is about to be released, it is expected that the late PX weekly production still has room to rise. Under the expectation that the pull of aromatics oil regulation continues to weaken and the supply is expected to increase, the supply of PX is relatively loose in the later stage, and the price center of gravity may shift downward, further promoting the PTA market center of gravity downward.
Technically, after the short-term touch callback 8234, it forms a certain short-term stability, the short-term has the demand to fill the gap above, and the upper gap is the demand in the range of 8414-8468.
◼ statement:
The content of this article is only as a case of personal investment review diary and theoretical study, the content is for reference only, the article mentioned not to do any trading basis, free to buy and sell, bear their own profits and losses, the market has risks, investment should be cautious!