News summary
Soybean planting progress exceeds expectationsfreecasinoroulette, the export inspection volume of U.S. soybeans fell short of expectations, and domestic soybean meal stocks increased significantly. The market is expected to follow the U.S. soybeans and fluctuate strongly, and changes in positions are worthy of attention.
Newsletter text
[The Lianmei market rose slightly on the 21st. The main contract M2409 closed at 3580 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase]
On the 21st, the Lianmei market rose slightly, with the main contract M2409 closing at 3580 yuan/ton, an increase of 0freecasinoroulette.06%; open positions were 2.2722 million lots, a decrease of 0.20 million lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of soybean meal from coastal oil mills has been steadily lowered. The price in Tianjin has dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 3480 yuan/ton. The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu and Guangdong are 3450 yuan/ton, 3430 yuan/ton and 3500 respectively. Yuan/ton, all remain stable.
[The progress of soybean planting in the United States exceeded expectations, attracting market attention]
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) sowing progress report, the U.S. soybean planting rate reached 52% in the week ended May 19, exceeding market expectations of 49%; compared with the same period last year, the planting rate decreased by 9 percentage points, but higher than the five-year average of 49%. In addition, the soybean emergence rate was 26%, an increase of 10 percentage points from the previous week, but still lower than 31% in the same period last year.
[Forecast that weather in U.S. soybean producing areas will have an impact on the future soybean market]
Weather forecasts point out that in the next two weeks, major soybean producing areas in the United States will face precipitation higher than historical averages, and temperatures will be close to or higher than normal levels. Heavy rain is expected in parts of the central and western regions this week, which may slow down soybean planting, but is beneficial to the growth of soybeans already sown. Precipitation is expected to decrease next week.
[U.S. soybean export inspections were lower than expected, which may affect market sentiment]
The USDA export inspection report showed that in the week ending May 16, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 184,100 tons, which was lower than market expectations. In addition, the upcoming continuous heavy rains in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, may cause further loss of production and may have an impact on Brazilian soybean export transportation.
[Domestic soybean meal stocks increased, and feed companies 'inventory days decreased slightly]
Domestically, the average monthly arrival volume to Hong Kong from May to July is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the soybean meal market is showing a cumulative trend. According to data, as of May 17, soybean meal stocks of major domestic oil mills were 623,100 tons, an increase of 63,900 tons from last week, an increase of 11.43%, and an increase of 188.21% year-on-year. The inventory days of downstream feed companies declined slightly, but they are still at a low level.
[Analysis of factors affecting the short-term trend of the Lianmei market]
Considering the floods in Brazil and the continued rain in the soybean producing areas of the United States, the U.S. market may show a strong and volatile trend in the short term. However, due to the good moisture content in the production area, later weather speculation will be affected, resulting in a strong shock in the Lianyao market expected to follow the trend of U.S. soybeans in the short term. Investors need to pay close attention to the impact of changes in positions on the market.