News summary
National pork and live pig prices rose 2.5 percent this weekcryptogamesforandroidfreetoplay.1% and 7cryptogamesforandroidfreetoplay.2%cryptogamesforandroidfreetoplayThe de-production capacity affects supply. Demand growth during the Dragon Boat Festival supports the rise in pig prices. The market expects prices to fall slightly in shock in the short term, but overall bullish.
Newsletter text
[Domestic pork prices show a continuous upward trend]
According to monitoring data, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product (000061) wholesale market rose to 21.2 yuan/kg on May 24, compared with last Friday.cryptogamesforandroidfreetoplay20.76 yuan/kg increased by 2.1%. The average price of pork this week was 20.85 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.7% from last week.
[The price of live pigs has increased significantly, and the average weekly price has increased month-on-month]
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of live pigs on May 24 was 16.48 yuan/kg, up 7.2% from last Friday's 15.38 yuan/kg, while the average price of live pigs this week recorded 15.98 yuan/kg, up 4.6% from last week's 15.27 yuan/kg.
[Market transactions have increased, and breeding companies have increased their weight]
Judging from the national average trading weight of live pigs, this week's month-on-month increase was 0.52%, and the increase was 0.43 percentage points higher than last week. As the market's bullish sentiment heats up, there has been a general phenomenon of weight reduction at the breeding end, giving priority to large pigs, thus pushing up the average trading weight.
[The purchase pressure of slaughtering companies has increased, and the operating rate has dropped slightly]
This week, the operating rate of key domestic pig slaughtering enterprises dropped slightly to 29.85%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week. The secondary fattening and filling up stalls were actively carried out, and some standard pigs were intercepted. In addition, the rise in pig prices led to an increase in purchase costs, making it more difficult for slaughtering companies to purchase and frustrating the operating rate.
[Market bullish sentiment drives pig prices up]
Hehe Futures analysis believes that the market's secondary fattening and filling up stalls has increased, and the supply of live pigs is tight, supporting the rise in pig prices. As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, pork consumption is expected to increase, the contradiction between supply and demand is reduced, the market is bullish, and pig prices may continue to rise.
[CITIC Construction Investment (601066) Futures pointed out that long-term supply changes will affect pig prices]
The short-term impact of secondary breeding on pig prices cannot be ignored, but long-term supply changes are the key to the cycle. Due to the sluggish market in the past, the production capacity of NANFENG has continued to be reduced, and the industry has gradually entered a positive cycle after supply and demand are basically balanced, and the price of live pigs has been promoted.
[Market prices are expected to fluctuate and rise in the future, and demand remains sluggish]
Although there is strong price increase sentiment in the Northeast region, the downstream acceptance capacity of other regions is insufficient, and the price increase may narrow. However, the flow of standard pigs into the secondary fattening column has a supporting effect on the market. The decline in pig prices may be short-lived, and the overall upward trend remains. Slaughter companies are difficult to purchase standard pigs, which have constraints on slaughtering volume. Terminal demand is poor, and it is difficult to increase slaughtering volume. It is expected that the short-term terminal market demand for live pigs may remain low.