At present, the macro policy is still warm.BallyvideopokermachinesHowever, the inventory pressure of the five mainstream varieties of raw materials at the industrial end still exists, coupled with the weakening of the support of raw materials and iron ore in the spot market, more on-demand procurement in the lower reaches of the off-season, the profit of steel traders, the slowing of direct delivery resources of steel mills, and the mainstream drop of spot billets by 10-20. Activity is limited, market merchants wait and see carefully, what is the trend of steel in the later period?Ballyvideopokermachines? Let's listen to the analyst's detailed analysis.
Factors affecting the price of steel
NO.1
Increase in profit and loss in ferrous metal smelting and Calendering
National Bureau of Statistics: from January to April, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 20946.Ballyvideopokermachines90 million yuan, an increase of 4% over the same period last yearBallyvideopokermachines.3%. From January to April, the total profit of ferrous metal smelting and Calendering industry was-22.22 billion yuan.
It can be seen from the statistical data that although the total profits of industrial enterprises have increased, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has decreased by 4.7%, the special equipment manufacturing industry by 7.3%, and the coal mining and washing industry by 34.2%. The oil, coal and other fuel processing industry has changed from profit to loss, the loss of ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing industry has increased, and some steel enterprises are expected to stop production and overhaul on their own. Steel spot price sentiment is still there, good steel price trend.
NO.2
More than 70 cities support housing "trade-in" and "trade-in"
According to the incomplete monitoring data of the Middle Index Research Institute, as of May 27, more than 70 cities across the country have expressed their support for housing "trade-in" and "trade-in", but they are still in the stage of policy exploration. In the future, the scope of participating cities is expected to continue to expand, the implementation is also expected to be enhanced, and will gradually play a role in the market.
At present, the state continues to implement a loose policy on real estate policy, the three major news of the central bank reduces the pressure on residents to buy houses, and many cities begin to implement it one after another, and macro policies play an obvious role in backing steel prices, coupled with the policy of exchanging old for new ones put forward by the central government. Real estate and manufacturing industries continue to implement, release capital investment expectations, expand steel demand, and be good for steel price trends.
NO.3
Global iron ore shipments hit an one-and-a-half-month high
Global iron ore shipments totaled 33.266 million tons, an increase of 2.579 million tons or 8.4% month-on-month, an one-and-a-half-month high, and a month-on-week increase of nearly 12%. Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, but shipments fell in non-mainstream areas.
China's iron ore imports mainly come from Australia and Brazil, and the recent shipments from Australia and Brazil have increased significantly, which is higher than the historical level of the same period, coupled with the continuous accumulation of iron ore stocks in domestic ports. last week, after a continuous rise, the average daily output of hot metal fell slightly compared with the previous week, the hot metal reached its peak and the production situation of steel enterprises remained to be observed. under the continuous increase in supply pressure, cost support weakened and negative steel price trend.
Individual ups and downs in the stable spot market
According to the APP data of Sinosteel:
Among the 24 markets of building materials, 16 markets fell 10-20 yuan / ton, and the average price of rebar 20mmHRB400E was 3839 yuan / ton, down 14 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.
Among the 24 hot coil markets, 1 market fell 10 yuan / ton, 2 markets rose 10 yuan / ton, and the average price of 4.75 hot rolled coil was 3855 yuan / ton, down 7 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.
Among the 23 markets of medium and heavy plate, 7 markets fell 10-20 yuan / ton, and the average price of 14-20mm board was 3932 yuan / ton, down 3 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.
Futures hold green downside
On the 27th, the main black rebar fell 23 to 3763, or 0.61%; the hot coil fell 26 to 3878, or 0.67%; the coking coal fell 51 to 1751, down 2.83%; the coke main fell 18 to 2340.5, or 0.76%; and iron ore fell 10 to 899, down 1.1%.
Comprehensive point of view
Due to the positive macro expectations, especially the policy of trade-in in real estate and manufacturing, capital investment is still expected, but considering that the price has risen too fast since this wave of about 10 days has risen more than 200 points from 3607, the market needs a pullback and repair. in particular, the futures market accelerated decline in the afternoon, Shuangjiao and iron ore led the decline, rebar fell below 3750, macro policy and industrial weak reality continued to play the game. At present, look at the normal pullback, do not operate frequently, patiently wait for replenishment opportunities, it is expected that steel prices will steadily fall tomorrow, with a range of 10-20 yuan / ton.