AuthorBeemcasinonodepositbonusShen Jing, equity investment department of Morgan Stanley fund
The rising prices of gold, copper and other resource products have attracted a lot of attention since the beginning of this year. As of April 26, the price of COMEX gold rose from $2067 / oz at the beginning of the year to $2352 / oz, an increase of more than 13%, while ICE oil prices rose nearly 14% over the same period.Beemcasinonodepositbonus.5 per cent reached $88.22 per barrel, while the price of LME copper rose 16.4 per cent to $9967 per tonne, hitting the $10,000 mark, while silver, tin, nickel and aluminum all rose. The upward price of resource goods has catalyzed the stock market, and it can be said that the resource goods sector is another important main line in addition to AI computing power this year.
This round of precious metals and other resource products rise is different from the past, gold and copper oil resonance, while rising with the dollar index, we believe that this round of market is the result of commodity and financial attributes. Commodity prices are essentially determined by supply and demand, but price fluctuations are also affected by multiple factors.
From a variety point of view, the core factor affecting the history of gold is the medium-and long-term real interest rates in the United States. After the Fed raised interest rates at its peak, the periodic decline in interest rates on 10-year US bonds catalyzed the start of gold prices. The escalation of the geo-conflict in April further promoted the price of gold to rise, and the risk aversion property of gold became a short-term factor, which has greater uncertainty, so the price of gold fell back from the new high after the situation eased slightly. In the medium to long term, concerns about the weakening of US dollar credit and the continued gold purchases by central banks in recent years support the price of gold.
For industrial metals such as copper, we believe that supply constraints are the basis to support high prices, while the global economic recovery is expected to push prices higher. According to production data from the world's leading miners, annual copper production is expected to increase slightly, but actual production is often lower than expected due to uncontrollable factors. On the demand side, the return of manufacturing in developed countries and infrastructure investment in emerging markets have supported global consumption of copper. The earlier planned reduction of smelting production by large Chinese smelters due to losses also further confirmed the tight supply of upstream copper mines. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate of US GDP data just released was lower than market expectations, while PCE growth rebounded, pointing to a rebound in inflationary pressure, and then rising inflation expectations supported prices such as industrial metals.
Under the background of limited supply, the price of crude oil is greatly influenced by geographical factors. OPEC+ continued to cut production in the second quarter, the supply phase tightened, while geo-conflict uncertainty remained, pushing up the price of ICE oil back to 85-90 US dollars / barrel. Us economic data are resilient and support crude oil consumption, while high oil prices keep US inflation high.
Overall, we are still optimistic about the investment opportunities brought about by this round of rising commodity prices. Although the influencing factors of different varieties may be different, under the background of the expectation of global manufacturing recovery, superimposed strong constraints on the supply of resource goods in the upper reaches in recent years, the current round of commodity market is still worthy of attention.